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IAMC

Publications

Publications by the consortium itself and by community projects: model comparison papers, protocol papers and community position pieces. Individual members’ publication lists are on their own sites.

Section under construction

This web section includes a list of publications representing the research output of IAMC members and their teams. Each news item consists of a title, a short overview and a link to more information on the website of the associated research project or research institution. If you would like to report a news item to be featured on this website, please contact the IAMC secretariat.

Reducing material requirements while decarbonising the Spanish economy: from a green growth to a postgrowth paradigm

The transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to increase material requirements, as low-carbon technologies (LCTs) typically require more materials than fossil fuel-based energy systems. Here, we extend the MEDEAS-Spain Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to improve the representation of material requirements, stocks, and flows. Key novelties are: (i) the use

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A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic

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Circular economy modelling for climate change mitigation: A review of empirical evidence and modelling approaches

Circular economy (CE) measures can play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in material- and energy-intensive sectors. Yet, their representation in GHG mitigation pathways is still not well captured in climate change mitigation models. To support modelling efforts towards better CE representation, two reviews were conducted: (1)

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On Differentiated Carbon Prices and Discount Rates

The consensus view among economists is that carbon prices, in order to be efficient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that countries are subject to different discount rates, we show that efficient carbon prices must be different across

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The Economics of a Just Transition

Addressing climate change requires policies that are ethically defensible, politically acceptable, and implementable. The concept of a “just transition”—a decarbonization process that avoids leaving workers and communities behind and mitigates burdens on vulnerable and historically marginalized groups—has gained prominence in academic and policy debates. This article bridges these debates with

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Exploring and Shaping International Futures

Barry B. Hughes

This Open Access book offers a structured approach to thinking about the future, covering local, global, and cross-sectoral perspectives. It begins by posing three fundamental questions: What futures are normatively desirable? What trajectories do current trends suggest? And how might human agency influence those trajectories? Using the UN Sustainable Development

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Explainer: Scenarios for CMIP7

In a publication in Geoscientific Model Development (van Vuuren et al., 2026), the ScenarioMIP team describes a new set of global emissions scenarios that will form the basis for climate research as part of the ongoing phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – CMIP7. Two important changes from the

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New study outlines 2040 milestones to keep the EU on track for climate neutrality

Nature Communications provides guidance on the emissions reductions and technology transit

April 2026 – A new modelling study published in Nature Communications provides guidance on the emissions reductions and technology transitions the European Union must achieve by 2040 to remain on a cost-effective pathway to climate neutrality by 2050. Using the integrated assessment model REMIND, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for

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DIAMOND project deliverable 4.5 Financial and Labour Markets and Consumers in IAMs

Process Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been central to mapping cost-effective decarbonization pathways, but they typically assume frictionless labour and capital markets and represent technology adoption as cost-driven optimisation by representative agents. These simplifications conceal exactly the frictions that determine how fast, how fairly and at what cost the European

Exploring global, economy-wide material trajectories and associated environmental pressures under shared socioeconomic pathways

Material production is a major contributor to many environmental challenges, but has received limited attention in the global, long-term scenarios produced by integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to investigate humankind’s potential responses. Here, we quantify economy-wide material stocks and flows for the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and a low material

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Narrative and quantitative analysis of democratic principles in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Although climate action is highly intertwined with governance structures, climate policy modelling science has been argued to insufficiently reflect political processes. We analyse the evolution of democratic governance embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are heavily underpinning modelling studies. Using the Narrative Policy Framework in the SSPs storylines,

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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2025

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has published the Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2025. This edition of the GECO presents an updated view on the implications of energy and climate policies around the world. Under current legislated policies, global emissions peak immediately and decrease gradually to 2005 levels by 2050, but

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Assessment of Newer Global Emissions Scenarios for Corporate Climate Transition Risk and Target Setting Applications

[Steven Rose](mailto: srose@epri

This study evaluates the latest vintage of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Energy Agency, the Transition Pathway Initiative (TPI), Principles for Responsible Investing (PRI), and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). These pathways are key inputs to

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Who gets what in climate mitigation scenarios?

Politicians care a lot about the distribution of burdens and benefits, but mitigation scenarios rarely make distributional assumptions explicit. An interdisciplinary team at IIASA developed an approach to assess distributional outcomes and develop scenario narratives aligned with different justice principles. The new method is simple to apply and adaptable across

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From least-cost to SDG-optimal sectoral allocation of Paris Agreement-compatible mitigation efforts

Limiting global warming to well below 2 °C necessitates profound decarbonization, but how to distribute mitigation efforts over sectors remains a widely debated issue. Although integrated assessment models traditionally rely on ‘least-cost’ optimization to answer this question, the resulting sectoral allocations vary widely and ignore impacts on other potential policy objectives.

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Region-specific and nutritionally adequate dietary transitions can bolster sustainability and socioeconomic benefits

Shifting towards plant-based diets and reducing ruminant-based food consumption offers broad benefits but varies across regions. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore sustainable dietary transitions under diverse consumers, behavioural adoption and regional uncertainties. Increasing plant protein intake or lowering ruminant reliance can support nutritionally adequate diets while

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Energy system implications of naturally occurring hydrogen

Previous studies on the use of hydrogen (H2) in the future energy system typically find a limited role for the energy carrier; however, these studies have not accounted for geologic H2 (gH2), which by some estimates may be abundantly available at low cost. Consequently, hydrogen’s role in the energy system could

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Implications of overshoot for climate mitigation strategies

Temporary climate overshoot—especially for 1.5 °C—is now unavoidable. In this Perspective, we show how overshoot emerged in mitigation pathways over the past three decades, from a modelling device for exploring stringent climate goals to an inevitable feature of scenarios. Depending on its extent, overshoot affects the pace and feasibility of emissions

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PRISMA Scenario Protocol

PRISMA, a Horizon Europe funded project (grant agreement No. 101081604) coordinated by the CMCC Foundation, is excited to share the PRISMA Scenario Protocol – which also invites other IAM teams to contribute modelling runs – designed to analyse the implications of regionally differentiated roll-backs on the ambition of net-zero climate

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A weighting framework to improve the use of emissions scenario ensembles of opportunity

Integrated assessment models produce large ensembles of socioeconomic scenarios that are used profusely in climate change research. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), non-governmental organizations or national climate committees often rely on ensemble statistics to identify mitigation strategies and set climate targets. A limitation of such evidence is the

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Climate Implications of Hydrogen Deployment Considering Changes in Emissions From Direct and Indirect Forcers

Hydrogen could help to decarbonize hard-to-electrify end uses in future energy systems. While increased hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, and use may lead to an increase in hydrogen emissions, both greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-GHG emissions could decline as hydrogen displaces incumbent fuels and energy carriers. The full suite of potential

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COVID-19 impacts and post-pandemic rebound in Pakistan’s sectoral greenhouse gas emissions (2018–2023)

This study presents the first multi-year, sectorally disaggregated greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory for Pakistan covering 2018–2023, capturing pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic dynamics. Using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and national activity data by sector, emissions were quantified across energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry, and other land use

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REMIND-PyPSA-Eur: integrating power system flexibility into sector-coupled energy transition pathways

The rapid expansion of low-cost renewable electricity combined with end-use electrification in transport, industry, and buildings offers a promising path to deep decarbonisation. However, aligning variable supply with demand requires strategies for daily and seasonal balancing. Existing models either lack the wide scope required for long-term transition pathways or the

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Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries

Energy modelling tools guide energy transition planning, yet critical questions persist regarding their application in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These countries face the complex challenge of meeting growing energy needs in ways that are affordable, sustainable and resilient, while also advancing broader, long-term development goals in uncertain financial, geopolitical

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Ensuring consistency between biogeochemical planetary boundaries

The planetary boundaries framework sets precautionary limits to keep humanity within a safe operating space, aiming to maintain a stable, Holocene-like Earth system. Current methods for estimating these limits, however, create an imbalance by overstating biogeochemical risks relative to climate change. Here we propose a revised, flow-based, method for estimating

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Net-zero compatible development pathways in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa: lessons for short-term actions

The global carbon neutrality objective is a key upshot of the Paris Agreement climate goals. Its translation to the national level has been central to climate policy since then and, notably, country commitments have flourished over the years. However, there is still limited scientifically robust and policy-relevant evidence on national

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Staying on track: a bottom-up Paris-aligned pathway driven by COP initiatives

The announcement of voluntary climate initiatives during recent Conferences of Parties (COPs) underscores the interplay between voluntary initiatives and the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and COP decisions. Harmonising the collective stocktake efforts with initiative goals facilitates developing pathways across specific thematic areas (e.g., sectors, greenhouse gases) towards achieving the

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Enhancing Coal Portfolio Flexibility in a Coal-Dominated System: Evidence from Zhejiang (2025/2030)

Shuwei Zhang, Nanya Huang, Guangzhi Yin, Jin Qiao (Draworld Beijing Center); supported by Qin Qi (CREA)

A new joint report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Draworld (Beijing) Center quantifies the economic and climate value of enhancing coal power portfolio flexibility in Zhejiang Province, China. Using a unit-commitment and economic-dispatch (UCED) framework based on PyPSA and a 33-node national model,

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Holding the course: Annual Net-Zero Report 2025

The ELEVATE Annual Net-Zero Report 2025 offers a comprehensive assessment of the progress toward net-zero targets consistent with the Paris Agreement. Published during a time of increasing geopolitical tensions, the report explores timely topics, including the growing focus on trade barriers, the implications of market-based instruments, and the role of

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2025 Global Change Outlook

Produced by the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, the 2025 Global Change Outlook presents the Center’s latest projections for Earth’s energy and climate systems under two policy scenarios – one based on current measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the other aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of capping

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E3SM-GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human-Earth Feedback Research

Modeling human-environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and

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How stocks judge COPs: Market impacts of climate conferences

International efforts to combat climate change almost inevitably entail relative earnings reductions for fossil fuel companies, and gains by renewable companies. This study investigates the relationship between climate change Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings and the stock market performance of selected publicly listed companies. Specifically, we compare the price

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Linking models to analyse low carbon transitions

Linking existing models to extend energy system and integrated assessment analysis is an increasingly common practice. Despite this, and unlike in the field of environmental and earth sciences, little attention has so far been paid to the details of it, to the trade-offs involved and the way in which the

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Baumol’s climate disease

In the last century, renowned economist William Baumol warned that economic growth could be limited by “stagnant” sectors—those with limited technological progress. In essence, our future prosperity hinges not just on what we’re good at, but on overcoming what we’re bad at. A recent paper “Baumol’s Climate Disease” applies this

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Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target

Science Advances by CMCC shows that stringent climate policies designed to avoid temporari

A new Science Advances study by CMCC shows that pursuing net-zero climate policies and avoiding temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature limit could prevent 207,000 premature deaths and save $2,269 billion USD in economic damages by 2030 by improving air quality. The research highlights that ambitious climate action not only limits global warming but also delivers

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Electric grid vulnerability and coal-dependent economies in Southeast Europe

Southeast Europe is undergoing a dramatic energy transition, while remaining heavily reliant on coal and aging grid infrastructure. Integrating higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) reveals and intensifies existing vulnerabilities without substantial infrastructure upgrades. This study develops a comprehensive grid vulnerability risk assessment for twelve national power systems in

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Within-country inequality and the shaping of a just global climate policy

Climate policy design must balance emissions mitigation with concerns for fairness, particularly as climate change disproportionately affects the poorest households within and across countries. Integrated Assessment Models used for global climate policy evaluation have so far typically not considered inequality effects within countries. To fill this gap, we develop a

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Further Reading

The SESAME Human-Earth Atlas Human activities such as food production, mining, transportation, and construction have extensively modified Earth’s land and marine environments, causing biodiversity loss, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change. However, studying spatial aspects of the relationships that link the global human system with non-human parts of the

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The global environmental footprint of Switzerland’s net-zero energy system uncovers impacts abroad

National energy system models play a crucial role in climate policy. However, they often overlook environmental impacts beyond territorial greenhouse gas emissions. Here we evaluate a territorial net-zero carbon dioxide emissions energy scenario for Switzerland coupled with life cycle assessment to quantify non-domestic environmental burdens. We highlight the limitations of

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The material-energy nexus in net-zero transition scenarios: exploring environmental trade-offs and uncertainties

As countries pursue net-zero energy systems, material demands intensify. This study develops a framework combining energy system modeling and life cycle assessment to quantify environmental impacts and material needs of energy transition scenarios. We apply it to Switzerland’s net-zero scenario, using global sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainties in material intensity, efficiency, and market

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Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia (OECD, 2025)

As the battle against plastic pollution intensifies, attention is increasingly on regional action. The OECD’s Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia provides a roadmap to support policy design and implementation in the region. What are a few of the key findings? Policy action is accelerating in the region. Nine of

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A window of (missed) opportunity? A comprehensive stocktake and energy-system impact assessment of global COVID-19 recovery packages

COVID-19 reshaped global economic priorities at the time, with recovery packages offering unprecedented fiscal stimuli aimed at revitalising economies from the impacts of the pandemic and associated policy responses—including lockdowns. While these packages were quickly framed as an opportunity for aligning socioeconomic recovery spending with near- and longer-term climate goals,

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Comparing economic impacts of net-zero transition with climate damage uncertainties using a dual-model approach

This study conducts a scenario analysis of global net-zero emissions by 2050 using two macroeconomic models with distinct theoretical foundations: E3ME (non-equilibrium) and GEM-E3 (equilibrium). The analysis quantifies the economic impacts of increasing climate policy ambition to meet the global 1.5 °C warming target and highlights key differences between the

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Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability

Land carbon fluxes are key to the Paris Agreement. However, data comparability issues persist between countries’ land greenhouse gas inventories and mitigation targets, and what land models (bookkeeping and integrated assessments) provide as Paris-aligned benchmarks for land. As a result, the Global Stocktake, aiming to track collective mitigation progress, did

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An integrated modeling perspective on climate change mitigation and co-benefits in the transport sector

When comparing different transport policies, the focus typically lies on their impact on CO₂ emissions, while their effects on health and other externalities are less understood. Our new study takes an integrated look at three strategies for transforming transport: lifestyle changes (LSCs), electrification, and efficiency improvements. Each climate mitigation strategy

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China’s sustainable food system requires concerted efforts

Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, this study finds that under current trends, most social and environmental targets related to the Chinese food system are not aligned with the UN 2030 Agenda. Bundling policies addressing public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement can minimize trade-offs, revealing the importance of coordinated

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Defining ‘abated’ fossil fuel and industrial process emissions

There is scientific consensus that limiting warming in line with the Paris Agreement goals requires reaching net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century and net negative emissions thereafter. Because of the entrenchment of current fossil fuel energy and feedstock demand estimated in almost all global modelled scenarios, ‘abated’ fossil fuel and industrial

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Multi-benefit diet changes in China

Transformation to healthier and more sustainable diets in China can generate measurable benefits for nutrition, the environment and food affordability. Integrating multidimensional sustainability goals into China’s dietary guidelines can help to align food policy with long-term societal and environmental improvements. Wang, X., Cai, H., Xuan, J., Yuan, C., Bodirsky, B.L.,

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Using deep learning to generate key variables in global mitigation scenarios

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are the dominant tools for projecting mitigation scenarios. However, IAM-based scenarios often face challenges such as modelling biases and large computational burden. Here we develop a deep learning framework to generate key variables through synthetic mitigation scenarios aligned with the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Scenarios Database.

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A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target: Structural reforms, LIFE, and Sectoral Pathways

India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. The existing scenarios from India specific literature on 2070 net-zero, while very useful, mainly focus on alternative techno-economic pathways, power sector alone, and choice of peaking and net-zero years. But none of the

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An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability

Ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios present users with a collection of strategies for limiting global warming. These strategies may differ in their associated feasibility challenges, mitigation co-impacts, and ultimately their relative societal desirability. Understanding these scenario characteristics is therefore crucial when scenarios are used to inform strategic decisions. One

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The multiple benefits of Chinese dietary transformation

The transition to more sustainable diets is critical to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and meet the Paris Agreement commitments. In China, this transition is particularly urgent due to the double burden of malnutrition and environmental degradation. In this study, we explored the potential of alternative diets in China to

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The impact of bioplastics production on climate change mitigation, fossil fuels and land-use

As plastics production remains heavily fossil-dependent, plastics produced from biomass feedstocks could be a climate-friendly alternative. However, extensive biomass production is linked to reduced carbon sinks, thus posing an opposing challenge. This study analyses large-scale bioplastics production and its impacts on the energy system and land-use using an Integrated Assessment

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Supporting climate policy for Indian states: Learnings from long-term modelling

As India and its states move towards realizing net-zero emissions, long-term energy and emissions modelling using integrated assessment models (IAMs) are necessary to institute and embed long-term planning in both national- and state-level policies. The issue brief, Supporting Climate Policy for Indian States: Learnings from Long-term Modelling, encapsulates the experiences,

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Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries’ nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of

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The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors, but it faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 190 projects over 3 years, we identify

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Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway

The study assesses the impact of India’s climate policies across the power, residential, and transport sectors, focusing on their role in reducing emissions and supporting the country’s 2070 net-zero target. This has been carried out using Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which is an Integrated Assessment Model. India’s current climate

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India’s pathway to net-zero: status, challenges and way forward

The announcement of India’s 2070 net-zero target has demonstrated the power of a credible policy signal and changed the course of India’s climate debate. While the Government of India (GoI) has not specified whether this target refers to carbon-dioxide or all greenhouse gases, the announcement has been a watershed moment

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An integrated perspective on the decarbonization of shipping

As climate change escalates, the imperative to decarbonize all human activities intensifies1. In the shipping industry, the transition from oil products to biofuels and e-fuels (or electrofuels) is essential for deep emissions cutbacks. This transition requires developing the production capacity of low-carbon fuels and alternative vessel motorization. By contrast, techno-economic

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International shipping in a world below 2 °C

The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the

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Making It Happen: National Pathways to Net Zero – A new report from the DDP national modelling community

A new report released by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) Initiative, “Making It Happen: National Pathways to Net Zero”, analyzes detailed scenarios from ten countries collectively representing nearly half of the world’s population and a significant portion of global emissions: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa,

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Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we

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Science-based targets miss the mark

Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement relies on every actor maximising their effort to reduce emissions. Generic targets claiming a basis in science have been used to justify inequitable efforts that insufficiently stretch the ambition of the best-resourced countries and companies. Science-based targets are proliferating not only

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Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality

This article explores the regional-level action measures for achieve national climate targets. Because of substantial inequalities and heterogeneities among regions, especially in developing economies, aggressive or uniform actions may exacerbate inequity and induce huge economic losses, which in turn challenges the national climate pledges. Radical or unified actions may exacerbate

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Industrialization, environmental externality, and climate mitigation strategies

Industrialization process in developing countries should be carefully considered in formulating climate policies as it’s a take-off period with high carbon emissions (a significant demand of carbon-intensive products such as building materials, steel, and cement, among others), implying a more prominent trade-off between development and emission reduction. Considering developing countries’

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Multiplier effect on reducing carbon emissions of joint demand and supply side measures in the hydrogen market

The article discusses the importance of hydrogen energy in replacing fossil fuels and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. It outlines three key measures to promote hydrogen energy, reducing the cost of low-carbon hydrogen through technological improvements, increasing the production capacity of low-carbon hydrogen by stimulating investment and enhancing

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Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance

Climate impacts unfold in interconnected systems of people, nature, and infrastructure, revealing surprising connections across sectors and regions. Effective climate responses depend on understanding complex interactions. This article builds on the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment to suggest a framework for addressing these challenges, involving: integration of disciplines to understand

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Economic quantification of Loss and Damage funding needs

A loss and damage (L&D) fund has been established to support particularly vulnerable developing countries. L&D funding needs, entitlements and necessary contributions can be quantified using climate economics coupled with historical responsibility principles; for the year 2025, total L&D funding needs are estimated to be US $395 [128–937] billion. Economic

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The Changemaker’s Guide to the Energy Transition

ENCLUDE proudly presents The Changemaker’s Guide to the Energy Transition, a playbook that aims to take citizens step by step to design, implement and reflect on an initiative of their own related to the energy transition. This is the outcome of helping citizens develop their own community energy initiatives. The

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Impacts of Global Warming on Regional Energy and Economy: Uneven consequences arising from global warming-induced heating and cooling demand of households

The impacts of global warming vary across regions. This paper studies the distributional implications of global warming impacts on household energy use for heating and cooling and the induced macroeconomic responses under different scenarios. The authors’ research updates the direct impact of global warming on household energy demand in 140

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Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition: Synthesis Report

The economics of climate change has traditionally been framed in terms of the costs of cutting emissions, relative to a fossil-fuel dominated system, assumed to be cheaper. The reality is different. Decarbonisation involves a competition between two paths of investment: high and low-carbon ways of generating, and using, energy. The challenge

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Careful selection of forest types in afforestation can increase carbon sequestration by 25% without compromising sustainability

Afforestation is a major carbon dioxide removal technology but can negatively affect food and land systems. In this article, the authors used an integrated assessment model to quantitatively demonstrate how the selection of forest type to use in afforestation could increase global carbon sequestration without compromising global food and land

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GCAM report: An R tool to process and standardize GCAM outputs

There is an urgent need for multi-model studies to characterize uncertainty arising from model heterogeneity. These studies aim to build a more reliable and transparent framework, informing policymakers in the design and implementation of climate policies. In response to this challenge, multiple institutes and organizations have adopted the standardized data

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Carbon neutrality and clean air acts can enable China to meet the Minamata Convention goals with substantial cost-savings

China faces the concurrent challenges of carbon dioxide (CO2) and toxic mercury (Hg) emissions from coal combustion, with implications for environmental and human health. To address these problems, China has implemented carbon neutrality targets, air pollution controls, and signed the Minamata Convention. However, how to best leverage these measures for

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Defining national net zero goals is critical for food and land use policy

151 countries are aiming for ‘Net Zero’ (NZ), however, the definitions of these goals are relatively inconsistent, including terms such as: ‘net-zero’, ‘climate neutral’ and ‘carbon-neutral’. This poses a significant problem when the definitions, scope and implementation are unclear. This lack of national level clarity poses particular a challenge for

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CRiceS and PolarRES Policy Brief: Enhancing Polar System Representation in Models for EU Climate Decision-Making

The EU plays a pivotal role in mitigating polar climate change, but decisions and planning depend on reliable projections. A joint policy brief from the two EU-funded projects CRiceS and PolarRES highlights the need for regionally refined projections and improved representation of polar processes to predict the future of the Arctic and Antarctic regions

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Global Energy System Transitions

Energy systems power the world’s economies. They are pivotal to providing sustained economic prosperity that provides the goods and services that humans desire. Climate change is intimately linked with energy systems because CO2 from fossil fuel use is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted to the atmosphere, and cumulative

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Climate ambition, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios

Energy and Climate Change, Alaa Al Khourdajie et al

In their new article published in Energy and Climate Change, Alaa Al Khourdajie et al. attributed variations in key energy sector indicators across global climate mitigation scenarios to climate ambition, assumptions in background socioeconomic scenarios, differences between models and an unattributed portion that depends on the interaction between these. The scenarios

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Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models

A new article from Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, et al. has been recently published on the 21st volume of the European Geosciences Union’s journal Biogeosciences. The team of scholars investigated carbon cycle feedbacks under idealized and more realistic overshoot scenarios in an ensemble of Earth system models. The responses of oceanic and

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Transitioning to a green economy requires a shift in investment and education

A commonly held perspective, endorsed by scientists, policymakers, and the public at large, asserts that tackling the climate crisis and promoting sustainable development must be interconnected. To facilitate a shift toward a green global economy while still enabling ongoing economic growth, substantial changes in the structure of global production and consumption

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Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget

In their new article published on Nature – Communications Earth & Environment, Joeri Rogelj and Robin D. Lamboll explore the non-CO2 emissions assumptions that underlie the latest remaining carbon budget estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and quantify the implication of the world pursuing alternative higher or lower

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Exploring dimensions of justice in climate science

Nature Climate Change, IIASA researchers propose a conceptual framework rooted in philosop

How can climate policy be made more just and fair? IIASA researchers have synthesized different dimensions of justice into a framework that can be used by climate scientists and policymakers, explaining how previous research has neglected many potential justice positions and how these can be implemented in policy contexts. Dealing

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Global Tipping Points Report

Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries. The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment

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How are climate policies assessed in emerging economies? A study of ex-ante policy appraisal in Brazil, China, and India

ABSTRACT Effective mitigation of climate change requires a robust set of policy interventions.Existing policy appraisal frameworks and approaches impact the design and choice of these policy options. However, their application to transformative climate policy can present several shortcomings. In light of criticism around current appraisal methods,we review the climate policy

Warming world, widening gap: climate change’s toll on poverty and inequality in South Africa

Environmental Research Letters](https://doi

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is already negatively affecting inequality and poverty, but the extent to which this happens at the micro-level remains relatively unexplored. Investigating the distributional effects of climate change at the micro-level is particularly relevant in low- or middle-income countries, where vulnerable populations are more susceptible

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State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal](https://doi

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward

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A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty: The case of green hydrogen in Greece

Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious long-term energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS

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Comparison of statistical and optimization models for projecting future PV installations at a sub-national scale

Spatially-disaggregated projections of new solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are essential for planning electricity grids and managing the electricity system at large scale. Such projections at sub-national level can be obtained by statistical models or by electricity system optimization models, but there is barely any study that compares the performances of

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Solar powered irrigation: a game-changer for small-scale farms in sub-Saharan Africa

Environmental Research Letters, as part of the research project [Renewables for African Ag

In sub-Saharan Africa 80% of agricultural production is from smallholder farmers, who face constraints on increasing farm productivity resulting in a large yield gap. Extensive rain-fed agriculture (90% of all cropland) under unpredictable and erratic rainfall pattern is a leading cause of the low productivity and food insecurity in Africa,

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4C Climate Carbon: Carbon Budget Factsheet

Global warming is dominated by the near-linear relationship between the global average temperature increase and cumulative CO₂ emissions. This relationship helps define a ‘carbon budget’, with uncertainties relating to the climate system and society through non-CO₂ emission pathways. The carbon budget has been an extremely powerful concept to quickly and

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Synergy solutions for a world in crisis

IIASA scientists contributed to a new UN report focusing on the importance and potential benefit from synergistic action with regard to climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report highlights potential knowledge barriers and major political and economic challenges and provides recommendations to address them. The report titled,

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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

the journal Science Advances shows

For the first time, an international team of scientists is able to provide a detailed outline of planetary resilience by mapping out all nine boundary processes that define a safe operating space for humanity. From global warming to the biosphere and deforestation, from pollutants & plastic to nitrogen cycles and

IRENA: World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway

With the world still reeling from the economic effects of the pandemic, the scale of the climate emergency has become ever more obvious in recent years, with record high temperatures and extreme weather events linked to climate change occurring around the globe. The success achieved this decade in reducing greenhouse

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AR6 scenarios database: an assessment of current practices and future recommendations

Mitigation scenarios have become an important element of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. We critically assess the curation of the IPCC mitigation scenarios database, with a focus on improving curation and utilisation. The existing method of curation favours particular models, and results may have limited statistical meaning. We

A research and development investment strategy to achieve the Paris climate agreement

Climate stabilization requires the deployment of several low-carbon options, some of which are still not available at large scale or are too costly. Governments will have to make important decisions on how to incentivize Research and Development (R&D). Yet, current assessments of climate neutrality typically do not include research-driven innovation.

World Bank report: Nature’s Frontiers: Achieving Sustainability, Efficiency, and Prosperity with Natural Capital

Nearly all types of natural capital—the world’s stock of resources provided by nature—are in decline. Combining cutting-edge, integrated natural science and economic models with an extensive new global dataset, Nature’s Frontiers: Achieving Sustainability, Efficiency, and Prosperity with Natural Capital offers a novel approach to address the foundational challenges of sustainability to find

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Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2°C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of

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Measuring Total Carbon Pricing

While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing—such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms—remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal

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Endogenous Economic Structure, Climate Change, and the Optimal Abatement Path by Hua Liao, Huiying Ye

Professors Hua Liao and Huiying Ye from Beijing Institute of technology (CEEP-BIT) published the paper “Endogenous Economic Structure, Climate Change, and the Optimal Abatement Path” sharing focuses on the development of CCEDS (Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics Model with Endogenous Structure) to determine long-term climate policy, which incorporates the economic

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An Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Switzerland

The new article “An Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways to Achieve Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Switzerland” has been published by Communication Earth & Environment. Abstract: “Switzerland has one of the lowest carbon intensities among industrialised countries. However, its transition to net-zero carbon dioxide emissions is complicated by limited

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Uncertainty in non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Contributes to Ambiguity in Global Climate Policy Feasibility

A new article abous greenhouses gas mitigation has been published by Nature Communicatons. “Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global

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State and Trends of Carbon Pricing

Direct carbon pricing instruments, key policy to decarbonization, now cover almost a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new World Bank report. The World Bank has been tracking carbon markets for around two decades and the annual State and Trends of Carbon Pricing report is now in

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IEA report: Global EV Outlook 2023

The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, battery demand, electricity consumption, oil displacement, greenhouse gas

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Climateworks foundation report – Achieving global climate goals by 2050: Pathways to a 1.5° C future

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This is the second edition of ClimateWorks’ report on achieving global climate goals by 2050. It includes an additional Ensemble of scenarios, which helps capture a more nuanced story about the linkages and trade-offs inherent in any given climate change mitigation strategy. Download and read the report here

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Q&A | Critical Minerals Demand Growth in the Net-Zero Scenario

The clean energy transition will drive considerable critical minerals demand growth. If critical minerals production and processing supply cannot keep up with the accelerating adoption of batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, the global energy system transformation could be meaningfully delayed. In this Q&A, the

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Contribution of carbon pricing to meeting a mid-century net zero target

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if

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The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal

Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is essential, alongside reducing emissions, if we want to stop climate change and ensure the sustained well-being of our planet. Our analysis indicates that attention on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in terms of scientific research, innovation and public awareness are all growing. However, we’re

Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2022

The Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2022 published by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre presents an updated view of the implications of energy and climate policies around the world. Since the previous report, post-pandemic economic developments and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have caused turmoil in international energy markets.

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Fairness considerations in global mitigation investments – a tool to explore ‘fair’ regional contributions to near-term regional mitigation investment needs

Despite overwhelming evidence that the world needs to make rapid and substantial investments in climate mitigation in this decade to meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, political and financial barriers continue to hinder mitigation efforts. Global mitigation investment pathways modeled in the sixth assessment report (AR6) of the

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Green hydrogen supply: Short-term scarcity, long-term uncertainty

Green hydrogen and derived electrofuels are important components of climate change mitigation scenarios as they enable emissions reductions in sectors inaccessible to direct electrification. However, scaling up supply is critical and challenging since electrolysis capacity needs to grow 6,000-8,000-fold until 2050 to meet the net-zero emissions scenarios of IEA and

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Dynamic Global Vegetation Models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability

Vegetation is subject to multiple pressures in the 21st century, including changes in climate, atmospheric composition and human land-use. Changes in vegetation type, structure, and function also feed back to the climate through their impact on the surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon and water. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), are therefore

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A MIT study estimates potential losses by 2050 amid low-carbon energy transition

A new study in the journal Climate Change Economics led by researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change estimates the current global asset value of untapped fossil fuels through 2050 under four increasingly ambitious climate-policy scenarios. The least ambitious scenario (“Paris Forever”) assumes that initial Paris Agreement greenhouse gas

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Columbia Energy work explains a multistrategy approach to decarbonizing industrial electricity & heat use

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from industrial operations poses a significant challenge due to heat needs ranging from 50–1,600°C (122–2,912°F) as well as process-based emissions. The Paris Agreement emphasizes maintaining a global temperature increase “well below 2°C and toward 1.5°C” from preindustrial levels. This requires industry to reach net-zero carbon

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Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that

World Bank report: State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2022

This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and how they could accelerate the delivery of long-term mitigation goals. Specifically, this includes the

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The energy system transformation needed to achieve the US long-term strategy

The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States long-term strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Global net-zero emissions goals: Challenges and opportunities

To avert the worst impacts of climate change, from extreme flooding to devastating droughts, the world will need to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the latest United Nations IPCC Report on the Earth’s climate system. Achieving that goal means that by around 2050, the planet’s total greenhouse gas

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New study on land-based climate change mitigation measures effects on agricultural markets and food security

Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. A new study by Fujimori, Wu et al. employs six global agroeconomic models representing agriculture and land-use systems and their

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Decarbonisation of the energy system

Three quarters of the European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from burning coal, oil and natural gas to produce energy services, including heating for buildings, transportation and operation of machinery. The transition to climate neutrality means these services must be provided without associated emissions. It is not possible today to

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EEIST Project launches first stakeholder report at COP26

The aim of EEIST project is to use cutting edge advanced methods, which exist in the sciences of complexity and economics, to support government decision making around facilitating a rapid low-carbon transition. EEIST launched its first stakeholder report initially at the WLS, or World Leaders’ Summit, and then on 4th

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Study: Addressing jointly air pollution and climate change to reduce health-economic impacts

[The Lancet Planetary Health](https://www

A new study led by RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE) recently published in The Lancet Planetary Health (among the authors, Lara Aleluia Reis and Laurent Drouet, scientists at RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), and Massimo Tavoni, Director of EIEE) lay out a modelling framework that internalizes air pollution’s

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SIPA Report: Comparing a Clean Electricity Standard and a Carbon Tax

sector approach that starts with a clean electricity standard (CES)

Policies that encourage cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential to rapidly decarbonizing an economy. However, no single climate policy is a comprehensive decarbonization strategy. Proposals have targeted greenhouse gases both directly through, for example, carbon taxes or cap-and-trade strategies, and indirectly through, for example, regulating vehicle fuel efficiency or

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Scenarios are essential for exploring climate change. These stories of future Earth help to reveal how we might prevent global tragedy – by IIASA

In this IIASA Options Winter 2021 feature article by Elina Brutschin, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi and Joeri Rogelj explain why climate scenarios are needed. They are essential because the future is uncertain and complex. We cannot know what will happen to populations, international relations, societies, economies, ecosystems, and technologies. Much

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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2021: Advancing towards climate neutrality

This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2021) takes stock of recent updates in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term net zero emission targets (LTS) announced leading up to and during the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in November 2021. GECO 2021 finds that the NDC

IEA Renewables 2021 report

Renewables 2021 is the IEA’s primary analysis on the sector, based on current policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2026 while also exploring key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth. Renewables are the backbone

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Climate Policy: Special Issue on COVID-19 recovery and climate policy

response to a Climate Policy call for papers issued in May 2020, during the first phase of

This Special Issue presents 11 new papers, published in response to a Climate Policy call for papers issued in May 2020, during the first phase of the pandemic. The invitation to submit papers was broad and wide-ranging: the Climate Policy editorial team was looking for high-quality analysis that could shed

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IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) produces comprehensive, reliable data sets on renewable energy capacity and use worldwide. Renewable Energy Statistics 2021 provides data sets on power-generation capacity for 2011-2020, actual power generation for 2011-2019 and renewable energy balances for over 130 countries and areas for 2018-2019. Data was obtained

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The 2021 State of the energy union report

Today, Commissioner for energy Kadri Simson presented the State of the energy union report to the European Parliament. Adopted on 26 October 2021, the report looks back at a number of significant steps towards delivering the European Green Deal, which happened in the course of last year. Amongst the milestones

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Energy and Climate Change special issue on “Net-Zero Energy Systems”

Net-zero emissions energy systems are important for limiting global temperature change to any level. Although net-zero emissions pledges by countries, subnational jurisdictions, and other entities have grown, detailed research on net-zero energy systems has only recently emerged in the literature. Net-zero energy systems was edited by Edited by Inês Azevedo,

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How can research help the world hit net zero by 2050?

The drive to curb carbon emissions — and remove carbon from the atmosphere to the point where society is making a “net zero” contribution to CO2 levels — is essential to secure our future on this planet. A new report by Elsevier aims to advance the understanding of research and innovation in

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Global Carbon Budget 2021

Global CO2 emissions return to near pre-COVID pandemic levels On November 4, the Global Carbon Project (GCP) published a preprint of its annual analysis of trends in the global carbon cycle in the journal Earth System Science Data, including an updated full-year projection of global fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions

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Publication – First Aid for Climate Change

Dear IAMC Community, As the climate summit in Glasgow unfolds, we’re proud to launch First Aid for Climate Change, a book best described as Al Gore meets Monty Python, with a pinch of Game of Thrones. We’re pretty sure it’s the only book about climate that will make you laugh.

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The New Economics of Innovation and Transition: Evaluating Opportunities and Risks

Economics has traditionally seen the challenge as one of managing difficult trade-offs between the pursuit of economic growth and the cost of cutting GHG emissions. On the surface, it seems that emissions reduction has consistently lost out to the pursuit of economic objectives, with global emissions continuing to rise. The

IEA yearly report World Energy Outlook 2021

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published its yearly report called “The World Energy Outlook” on its website. Against the backdrop of turbulent markets and a crucial meeting of the COP26 conference on climate change in Glasgow, the 2021 World Energy Outlook (WEO) provides an indispensable guide to the

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EEIST Report- Underestimation of the impacts of decarbonisation policies on innovation to create domestic growth opportunities

In this report the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) Consortium shows that the basis for decision making in many climate, energy and innovation policies is biased against correctly estimating the opportunities and economic benefits from decarbonisation policies. The three main reasons are: the underestimation of technological change

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RICE model used to generate a solely economic mitigation pathway up to 2100

The Paris Agreement relies on the reviewing process of national climate commitments to produce enhanced national pledges by virtue of national comparisons. At present, most reviews are based on equity principles, which countries have little agreement on. The recently published paper “Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally

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America is All-In Blueprint 2030 released

America Is All In released a comprehensive set of specific policies and actions that can deliver on the United States’ commitment to reduce emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Based on deep and robust analytical methodology, “Blueprint 2030: An All-In Climate Strategy for Faster, More Durable

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Benchmarking Scenario Comparisons: Key indicators for the clean energy transition

September 2021 by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the European Commi

Long-term energy scenarios have become an essential tool for policy makers to guide the clean energy transition. Energy scenarios produced are varied, leading to an abundance of insights and technology combinations. Comparison studies have emerged to help understand the convergences and divergences between various scenarios, providing trade-offs for decision makers and identifying

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Climate Change Scenario Services: From Science to Facilitating Action

An important gap in climate change scenario research is addressed by this Perspective piece: it presents a comprehensive service concept to make climate change scenarios accessible and actionable for key actors of climate neutrality. Despite the development of a range of climate services, climate change scenarios (climate change, impact, mitigation

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Putting a price on climate change

The social cost of carbon dioxide is one of the most influential indicators of climate change as it allows us to estimate the cost of greenhouse gas emissions to humanity. A new study leaded by the IIASA researcher Jarmo Kikstra looks back on how ten years of scientific advancements have

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Report – Deciding how to ‘change big things quickly’: Pros and cons of different appraisal techniques to inform decision-making on low-carbon transformational policies

In this policy paper, several case studies derived from the experiences of Brazil, China, Europe, India and the UK with low carbon transformational policies are analysed to shed light on the importance of the tools used to guide decision-making. The transition to a low-carbon economy is rapidly changing the environmental

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A path to zero

The International Monetary Fund publieshed a post by Christoph Bertram, Ottmar Edenhhofer, and Gunnar Luderer on the importance of implementing a comprehensive policy action. Breathtaking progress in crucial green technologies has brightened prospects for achieving the unprecedented emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as envisioned by the

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Deciding how to ‘change big things quickly’: Pros and cons of different appraisal techniques to inform decision-making on low-carbon transformational policies

In this policy paper, several case studies derived from the experiences of Brazil, China, Europe, India and the UK with low carbon transformational policies are analysed to shed light on the importance of the tools used to guide decision-making. The transition to a low-carbon economy is rapidly changing the environmental

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UN Climate Change Annual Report 2020

2020 proved to be an immensely challenging year. As the COVID-19 pandemic continued to unfold, all United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) processes continued to move forward in 2020, albeit in virtual mode. The secretariat continued to support Parties in developing their medium- and long-term commitments to zero

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Canadell and Jackson’s new essay demonstrates interconnection between climate change and ecosystem collapse

Human-driven greenhouse emissions are increasing the velocity of climate change and the frequency and intensity of climate extremes far above historical levels. These changes, along with other human-perturbations, are setting the conditions for more rapid and abrupt ecosystem dynamics and collapse. The book “Ecosystem Collapse and Climate Change” by Josep

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CLICCS Future Outlook: decarbonization by 2050 is currently not plausible

In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, the Hamburg Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility. CLICCS has released a publication attempting to systematically assess whether a climate future

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Researchers advise to improve climate policy-related IAMs

Nature](https://www

According to the authors of the comment published in Nature, the ‘integrated assessment models’ (IAMs) addressing climate change and used by both scholars and policy makers need improvements. Nowadays IAMs combine insights from climate science and economics to estimate how industrial and agricultural processes might be transformed to tackle global

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WB Report on State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021

The State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021 Report released by the World Bank provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and how they

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WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2021–2025

The World Metereological Organization (WMO) Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide. The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for the period 2021-2025 has been recently released. Predictions of climate indices and global fields are obtained

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MIT Joint Program’s 2021 Global Change Outlook released

The 2021 Global Change Outlook continues a process, started in 2012 by the MIT Joint Program, of providing a periodic update on the direction the planet is heading in terms of economic growth and its implications for resource use and the environment. To obtain an integrated look at food, water,

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A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries,

IEA Report: Net Zero by 2050. A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector

2050) combined for the first time the IEA’s global energy system modelling with the International Institute for Applied

The number of countries announcing pledges to achieve net-zero emissions over the coming decades continues to grow. But the pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 and

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Finance for the climate: charting a complex relationship

UCL’s Bartlett Faculty released “Finance for the climate: charting a complex relationship”, an online publication investigating the dangers, but also the opportunities, posed by the tight interconnection between the global financial system and the climate crisis. Even if the goals of the global financial system are not yet aligned

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Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow to compare these models can help to describe and explain differences in model projections. This also increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler et

Building a low-carbon, climate resilient future: secure, clean and efficient energy

While energy system models are important tools supporting decision- and policymakers, they are often monolithic, and, therefore, not particularly versatile and not able to address all types of problems related to the energy transition. Although models have become more complex, it does not necessarily mean that they are better suited

Decarbonising energy and the energy transition

Burning fossil fuels for energy is the major source of carbon dioxide, which is the most important greenhouse gas (GHG) responsible for warming the climate. Decarbonising the energy system to emit almost no GHGs is vital for reducing the extent of global climate change. This process is known ‘the energy transition’.

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An All-In climate strategy can cut U.S. emissions by 50% by 2030

As the U.S. prepares its new #NDC, the Centre for Global Sustainability and AmericaisAllIn, a coalition of leaders assembled in support of climate action in the United States released new analysis of an “all in” U.S. climate strategy to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030.

CGS analysis illustrates pathways for rapid coal retirement in China

Research led by the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland provides key insights about rapid coal phaseout in China—a process critical to success in achieving global climate goals. Released today in the open-access journal Nature Communications, the analysis shows how China can meet ambitious climate and economic development

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Climate economics support for the UN climate targets

Under the UN Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and to actively pursue a 1.5 °C limit. Yet, according to the 2018 Economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, these targets are economically suboptimal or unattainable and the world community should aim for 3.5 °C in 2100 instead.

Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change

To guide climate change policymaking, we need to understand how technologies and behaviors should be transformed to avoid dangerous levels of global warming and what the implications of failing to bring forward such transformation might be. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are computational tools developed by engineers, earth and natural scientists,

2nd Clean Air Outlook

The second edition of recurring Clean Air Outlook led by DG Environment of the European Commission was released in January. The report explores future pathways for air quality in the EU, and the corresponding costs and benefits – building on joint work of IIASA and JRC. The report builds on scenarios

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The Green Future Index 2021

The Green Future Index is a ranking of 76 countries and territories on their progress and commitment toward building a low carbon future. It measures the degree to which their economies are pivoting to clean energy, industry, agriculture, and society through investment in renewables, innovation, and green finance. Methodology The

EMF-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) Special Issue

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focused on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment

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The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis

Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit

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UN Climate Change’s Momentum for Change new report released

UN Climate Change’s Momentum for Change initiative has released a new interactive, online report, showcasing shining examples of diverse climate solutions from around the world. The report tells the stories of 15 winners of our 2019 UN Global Climate Action award winners, using infographics, animations, photos and videos.

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Synthesis paper presents results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways

Energy Strategy Reviews, presenting the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of

A synthesis paper was published in Energy Strategy Reviews, presenting the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in

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New special issue on climate impacts on energy systems and adaptation strategies in Energy and Climate Change: Call for papers

Guest Editors: Andrea N. Hahmann, Technical University of Denmark André F. P. Lucena, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Detlef P. van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Leon Clarke, University of Maryland (managing co-Editor in Chief) lclarke@umd.edu About this Special Issue: The energy system has a two-way relationship

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Energies Special Issue “Changes of Global Energy Systems” call for papers

Energies (https://www

Dear Colleagues, The Special Issue on “Changes of Global Energy Systems“, which will be published in Energies (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies), aims at contributing to the energy policy dialogue by bringing forth scientific and multidisciplinary knowledge to explore, assess and validate analyses of the energy systems transitions and their feasibility in line with the

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Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

The paper “Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era” on Nature Communications led by Prof. Yi-Ming Wei’s team from Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology (CEEP-BIT) has been published. The team explored a better emission-reduction strategy than current NDCs in terms of the potential

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