Publication

2025 Global Change Outlook

Produced by the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, the 2025 Global Change Outlook presents the Center’s latest projections for Earth’s energy and climate systems under two policy scenarios – one based on current measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the other aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report also presents implications of these projections for food and water security, air quality, biodiversity, economic well-being, and other sustainability indicators.

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More publications

Reducing material requirements while decarbonising the Spanish economy: from a green growth to a postgrowth paradigm

30 July 2026

The transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to increase material requirements, as low-carbon technologies (LCTs) typically require more materials than fossil fuel-based energy systems. Here, we extend the MEDEAS-Spain Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to improve the representation of material requirements, stocks, and flows. Key novelties are: (i) the use

Climate ambition explained: key indicators and net-zero target projections using machine learning

29 July 2026

This study uses advanced machine learning algorithms to analyze the indicators influencing national climate ambition in 2030 emissions targets and net-zero pledges. By focusing on technical and social feasibility, and political credibility, we assess climate ambition of countries through cumulative per capita emissions from 2021 to the net-zero target year.

A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

28 July 2026

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic