Publication

Enhancing Coal Portfolio Flexibility in a Coal-Dominated System: Evidence from Zhejiang (2025/2030)

A new joint report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Draworld (Beijing) Center quantifies the economic and climate value of enhancing coal power portfolio flexibility in Zhejiang Province, China. Using a unit-commitment and economic-dispatch (UCED) framework based on PyPSA and a 33-node national model,

Key findings include:

11% CO₂ reduction potential (2025): Compared to current dispatch practices, differentiated coal dispatch reduces coal-related emissions from 386 Mt to 343 Mt in 2025 (~11% reduction), primarily through intra-coal efficiency substitution and improved renewable integration (Executive Summary; Fig. 3-7)
2.5% system cost savings (2030): Under a differentiated efficiency-based dispatch scenario (EDflex), total annual system costs decline from RMB 2,777 billion to RMB 2,713 billion (~RMB 60–70 billion per year), without adding large-scale storage (Section 3.7; Fig. 3-7)
Renewable share increases from 8.8% (2025) to 16.3% (2030): Improved dispatch enables full renewable absorption without curtailment (Executive Summary; Section 3.7)
Coal fleet transformation: High-efficiency units operate >7,000 hours annually, while low-efficiency units shift toward reserve and backup roles, illustrating coal’s transition from dominant baseload to regulating resource (Section 3.5; Fig. 3-4)

Policy Implications

The results suggest that in coal-heavy systems, short- to medium-term flexibility gains should prioritize:

Coal fleet differentiation (efficiency-based dispatch)
Reform of reserve and must-run rules
Flexible interprovincial power flows aligned with marginal cost
Improved operational transparency

The study contributes to IAMC discussions on system flexibility, transition pathways in fossil-dominated systems, and the sequencing of dispatch reform versus new flexibility investments.

Title:
Enhancing Coal Portfolio Flexibility in a Coal-Dominated System: Evidence from Zhejiang (2025/2030)

Authors:
Shuwei Zhang, Nanya Huang, Guangzhi Yin, Jin Qiao (Draworld Beijing Center); supported by Qin Qi (CREA)

Full report available here

Enhancing Zhejiang’s coal power portfolio flexibility: the economic and climate gains

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