Publication

EMF-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) Special Issue

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focused on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment models and a simple climate model. These SLCF reductions reduced global temperatures by 0.18–0.26 °C in 2050 across the models for central climate parameters, with methane being the dominant contributor. The incremental impact of SLCF-focused reductions is much smaller when combined with a broader climate policy. Individual modeling group papers examined the health benefits of air pollutant reductions, climate policy co-benefits, and quantified market impacts from air pollutant damages.

The Climatic Change special issue consists of an overview, three cross-cutting papers, and four modeling group papers and is available here: https://link.springer.com/journal/10584/volumes-and-issues/163-3.

More publications

Reducing material requirements while decarbonising the Spanish economy: from a green growth to a postgrowth paradigm

30 July 2026

The transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to increase material requirements, as low-carbon technologies (LCTs) typically require more materials than fossil fuel-based energy systems. Here, we extend the MEDEAS-Spain Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to improve the representation of material requirements, stocks, and flows. Key novelties are: (i) the use

Climate ambition explained: key indicators and net-zero target projections using machine learning

29 July 2026

This study uses advanced machine learning algorithms to analyze the indicators influencing national climate ambition in 2030 emissions targets and net-zero pledges. By focusing on technical and social feasibility, and political credibility, we assess climate ambition of countries through cumulative per capita emissions from 2021 to the net-zero target year.

A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

28 July 2026

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic