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Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway

The study assesses the impact of India’s climate policies across the power, residential, and transport sectors, focusing on their role in reducing emissions and supporting the country’s 2070 net-zero target. This has been carried out using Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which is an Integrated Assessment Model. India’s current climate

Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway

The study assesses the impact of India’s climate policies across the power, residential, and transport sectors, focusing on their role in reducing emissions and supporting the country’s 2070 net-zero target. This has been carried out using Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which is an Integrated Assessment Model. India’s current climate policies are already helping reduce its long-term emissions curve and are projected to reduce CO2 emissions by almost 4 billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030.

This policy brief highlights how policies promoting renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, have transformed India’s power generation mix, reducing dependency on coal. In the transport sector, policies like the FAME scheme and Bharat Stage norms are accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and improving the efficiencies of conventional vehicles, while energy efficiency measures in the residential sector, such as the Standards & Labelling scheme, are improving the efficiency of household appliances like air conditioners and lighting. Despite these advances, challenges remain, such as the rebound effect in energy consumption, where efficiency improvements lead to higher overall usage. The study also underscores the need for further policy innovation to address areas like heavy-duty transport and industrial emissions, which remain less decarbonized.

The study concludes that while India’s current policies are bending the emissions curve, achieving the ambitious 2070 net-zero target will require continuous and vigorous policy development, particularly in energy-intensive sectors, and greater integration of new technologies like green hydrogen and new market-based instruments like Carbon Credit and Trading Scheme.

Link to full report

[**Key Highlights**](https://www.ceew.in/publications/impact-select-climate-policies-indias-emissions-pathway)

  • India’s climate policies have already saved 440 million tonnes of CO₂ (MtCO₂) from 2015 to 2020, and are projected to save 3,950 MtCO₂ from 2020 to 2030, 22,670 MtCO₂ from 2030 to 2050, and 44,070 MtCO₂ from 2050 to 2070. This translates to a 23 per cent reduction in cumulative emissions between 2015 and 2070 compared to a no-policy scenario.
  • Policies like National Solar Mission have played a key role in promoting renewables, resulting in a projected 43 per cent share for solar and wind in India’s electricity mix by 2050. Without these policies, coal would still dominate, with renewables contributing under 10 per cent.
  • Coal-based power is expected to decline significantly in the overall energy mix, with reductions of 24 per cent by 2030, 34 percent by 2050, and 36 per cent by 2070 when compared with a No Policy Scenario.
  • India’s FAME schemes (I & II) have been instrumental in incentivising EV adoption, resulting in a dramatic increase in electric two- and four-wheelers. By 2050, EVs are projected to make up over 65% of on-road stock in both two-wheeler (2W) and four-wheeler (4W) segments. Combined with Bharat Stage VI norms for vehicle efficiency, this will significantly reduce the transport sector’s oil demand by 55 per cent in 2050 and 83 per cent in 2070.
  • The UJALA scheme, which promotes LED lighting, has reduced lighting electricity consumption in the residential sector and is projected to lead to reductions of 48 per cent by 2030, 59 per cent by 2050, and 62 per cent by 2070 compared to the no-policy scenario.
  • The Standards & Labelling (S&L) scheme for appliances, particularly air conditioners, has also been impactful. Although AC energy efficiency has improved, the rebound effect (greater use due to lower operating costs) has led to an increase in total electricity demand for cooling. AC-related electricity use is projected to increase 10.2 times between 2020 and 2050 and 1.5 times between 2050 and 2070.
  • With the necessary policy assistance, electricity demand is growing, partly due to the electrification of transport. In contrast, EV-related electricity demand will grow by 9.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030, 103 TWh in 2050, and 440 TWh in 2070.

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