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Publication

Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C

The Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2 °C’ target is often interpreted as holding warming below 2 °C with a probability in the 66–90% range. We argue that such interpretations are not future-proof as decreasing uncertainties with time will allow temperatures to approach 2 °C later in the century. We show how referring to

Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C

The Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2 °C’ target is often interpreted as holding warming below 2 °C with a probability in the 66–90% range. We argue that such interpretations are not future-proof as decreasing uncertainties with time will allow temperatures to approach 2 °C later in the century. We show how referring to median warming can resolve this issue and illustrate how past probabilistic target interpretations would translate to a median 1.65–1.8 °C warming limit range.

Lamboll, R.D., Rogelj, J. Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026)
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y

More publications

A harmonised dataset for Earth system foundation models

Foundation models for Earth systems have so far been trained primarily on physical climate and weather data, with limited representation of the human systems that both drive and respond to environmental change. The lack of a unified global training resource that combines climate, land, ocean, cryosphere, infrastructure, hazards, and socioeconomic