ELENA – Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis Model BLUES

The ELENA model is an application of the MESSAGE platform, using the methods and framework of the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model, applied to Ecuador. ELENA is an integrated assessment model that considers four regions: Coast, Andes, Amazon and Galápagos. The base year is 2015, the time horizon is 2050, and it uses 5-year time steps. Each modelling year has a seasonality of 12 months, and for each month there is a typical day. Each day is divided in five time slices (night, morning, PV peak, day and load peak) defined to appropriately model the behaviour of variable renewable resources and electricity demand. The ELENA model considers six economic sectors (transportation, residential, commercial, industry, agriculture and others). The industrial sector is disaggregated in nine subsectors: food and beverage, textile, wood and paper, steel, mining, non-ferrous, chemicals, non-metals, and others. The optimization model must satisfy the primary constraint, which is meeting the useful energy and food demands allocated to each sector at minimum total expansion cost. In addition to that, the model works under a set of assumptions that build a scenario, providing different results at each case. The model is able to evaluate policies by implementing certain constraints. The useful energy and food demands are calculated exogenously. The main drivers used to forecast the demand growth are GDP, population, and trends based in historic behaviour.

The model is showcased in this poster presented at IAMC 2020.