Stocktake of G20 countries’ climate pledges reveals limited macroeconomic costs and employment shifts

The first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement reveals that the world is not on track to limit warming to safe levels. The stocktake signals the need for nations to enhance decarbonization pledges to meet the 1.5°C temperature target. Nations’ pledges and efforts to decarbonize have so far been limited, in part because of concerns that transitioning from fossil fuels toward system-wide electrification will have negative economic effects. Focusing on G20 nations, the analysis reveals that increased ambition in line with a 1.5°C pathway not only avoids significant economic costs (less than 0.5% of the 2040 global GDP) but also supports an employment transition by shifting fossil fuel jobs to electricity and non-energy sectors. These findings should encourage nations when renewing pledges ahead of the forthcoming COP28.