Call for Decarbonization Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

Co-authors of the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) Mitigation chapter solicit decarbonization scenarios as part of the U.S. National Climate Assessment. To get the widest possible selection of decarbonization scenarios, IAMC is happy to publicize this call for scenarios across its community. Please contact John Bistline (jbistline@epri.com) for questions or additional information.

Dear colleagues,

We are writing to let you know that the decarbonization scenario database for the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) is now open and ready for submissions. These scenarios will form part of the evidence base for the Mitigation chapter of the assessment. More information on the assessment can be found here: https://www.globalchange.gov/nca5

We are seeking emissions scenarios that:

• Focus on reaching net-zero CO2 or all greenhouse gas emissions across the economy (and corresponding reference/baseline scenarios)
• Cover the United States through at least 2050

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has graciously agreed to host the database. Scenarios can be submitted at: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/us-netzero2023-submission/. Attached are instructions for submitting to the database and a reporting template, which highlights several variables that are the highest priority for the chapter.

We are aiming for scenarios to be submitted no later than October 31 for consideration in the chapter, though we strongly encourage teams to submit their results as soon as possible to be included in interim drafts. The scenarios need to be part of a publication (peer-reviewed journal article, report, etc.) in a way that makes it eligible for the NCA5, which needs to be published by the literature cutoff date (April 12, 2023).

Those submitting scenarios retain full rights on their own use and sharing of their scenario data. They give authors of the NCA5 the right to use their data for the sole purpose of the assessment, which will remain confidential until the report is published. Those submitting scenarios transfer a non-exclusive right to publish their submitted data after the NCA5 report has been approved. The publication of the database will allow free use of all scenario data contained in the database, but not its reproduction in whole or in part by third parties.

Please distribute this note to other researchers who have been working on model-based decarbonization scenarios, since the aim is to make the widest possible selection of decarbonization scenarios accessible for quantitative assessments and figures for NCA5. However, submission to the database does not guarantee inclusion in the comparison, which depends on the discretion of the authors and needs of the assessment. We will plan to hold “office hours” soon to answer questions you have and to help with navigating the database submission process (we will be in touch soon with information).

Thanks for your consideration, and the NCA5 Mitigation author team greatly appreciates your willingness to share your decarbonization scenario data!

Best,

Jim McFarland, John Bistline, and Steve Davis
(on behalf of coauthors of the “Mitigation” chapter)

US-NetZero2023_data_template_v1

US NetZero2023 Submission Instructions

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